My pick for, er, Tory leader

Labour’s rapid slide in the polls means the Conservative leadership contest is not the irrelevance it may seem

Photos: Roger Harris and Laurie Noble / Wikimedia Commons

Let me say at the outset that I am decidedly not a Conservative. I joined the Labour party at 19 and have been an active trade unionist for most of my adult life, serving for many years as a senior union official. I have never voted Tory and don’t intend to start now.

But neither am I so tribal that I buy into the caricature of every Conservative politician or voter being some kind of flinty-hearted toff determined to keep his boot on the neck of the workers. I believe, in fact, that our society would be more civilised if we were able to concede that our political opponents are not, in most cases, motivated by nefarious intentions, but have merely decided to follow a different blueprint for making the world a better place.   

Moreover, governments arguably perform more effectively when they are properly held to account by well-functioning opposition parties in an adversarial parliament. Thus, none of us, regardless of political stripe, really benefits when the main opposition party is a basket case.

Though conventional wisdom says the Tories will be out of power for at least two parliaments, I don’t believe things are quite so straightforward. I argued before the general election – and it has been proven in the months since – that this was not a ‘1997 moment’. Labour’s support at the election was wide but shallow. Contempt for the Tories was a greater motivation than any special affection for Labour in the way that many voted.

Labour’s popularity (such as it was) is already on the slide. And history tells us that once low poll ratings become entrenched, it becomes difficult to turn things around.

All of these factors mean that the current contest for the leadership of the Conservative party is not the irrelevance that some are claiming it to be. The outcome will matter. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that whoever wins the race will become prime minister.

So which of the four remaining candidates should Labour fear most? Who is pitching the right message? Who is best-placed to head off the threat to the Tories from Reform?

James Cleverly is an effective and competent operator. I know that because he was a member of the London assembly and chairman of the capital’s fire authority when I was serving as the London regional secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, so we locked horns directly for a period. I opposed many of the things he did at the time, but it would be dishonest to deny his obvious abilities or charm. Politically, though, Cleverly has always struck me as a market-worshipping Thatcherite, and I’m not convinced that’s what the Tories need right now. Given the havoc wreaked by markets over the past 15 years, many voters want to see the return of the protective state, not one which has its frontiers rolled back ever further.