Labour still has a problem with Brexit-supporting working-class voters
Since the general election, we have been bombarded by data and statistics. This age group was more likely to vote for this party; that age group for that party; men for this lot; women for that lot; graduates this way; non-graduates that way; homeowners, renters, in work, out of work: the vote seems to have been divided a thousand ways by the seemingly ever-expanding number of polling companies who populate the political arena.
One may find this stuff utterly tedious or mildly fascinating (for me, it’s the latter: in another life, I’d have been a psephologist!); but, either way, analysis of this kind does, from time to time, throw up important information that can help to provide us with an understanding of what is going on beneath the surface.
In that context, a study of post-election data collected by YouGov brings to light a couple of interesting facts. First, for all its attempts to reconnect with working-class Britain, Labour’s vote share did not increase among the C2DEs (the occupational working class). The party’s share among this cohort stood at 33% - exactly where it was at the 2019 election.
By contrast, Labour’s vote share among the ABC1 cohort (the occupational middle class) increased from 33% to 36%.
Second - and it is important here to remember that around two-thirds of C2DEs supported Brexit - Labour won the support of just 19% of Leave voters at the 2024 election. That figure does represent an increase of five percentage points from 2019, but is still down on the 2017 figure of 24% (in 2017 the party hadn’t yet adopted the suicidal pledge to hold a second EU referendum, of course).
By contrast, Labour won the support of 47% of Remain voters at the 2024 election.
Here’s another bit of data, published in the Financial Times, that tells an important story about the 2024 election.
Does all this matter? I think so. For although Labour won a parliamentary majority of a size that would have been inconceivable in the aftermath of the 2019 election, it demonstrates that the party hasn’t reconnected in any meaningful way with a sizeable body of Brexit-supporting, working-class and economically-deprived voters.
In my 2020 book, Despised: why the modern Left loathes the working class, I charted how the Labour party had, over the course of around 30 years or so, abandoned its working-class roots and transmuted into a vehicle of, and for, the professional and managerial classes. The coalition between working-class Hartlepool and middle-class Hampstead, which had been central to Labour’s success throughout its history, had become fundamentally unbalanced: the priorities of Hampstead had come to dominate inside the party while Hartlepool had been elbowed aside.
At the time Despised was published, just a quarter of Labour’s membership was drawn from the C2DEs. I’d be interested to learn where that figure stands today.
It is undeniable that the ’Red Wall’ constituencies that returned to Labour at the 2024 election did so not out of any renewed affection for the party, but because the voters in these places felt bitterly let down by a Conservative party in whom many had, in 2019, placed their trust for the first time.
Reform UK performed well in many of these constituencies and, having made a parliamentary breakthrough, might well pose a serious threat to Labour next time out. That’s why it’s so important for Labour to deliver on the priorities of Red Wall voters: get immigration numbers down, reduce NHS waiting lists, secure growth in the economy, and get to grips with the lawlessness blighting many working-class communities.
Labour’s relationship with the traditional working-class remains ‘complicated’. The party still has much to do if a rapprochement is to be achieved.
Last week, I appeared as a panellist alongside Conservative peer Baron Moylan on GB News’s Dewbs & Co. We discussed Ukraine, the monarchy, ‘cultural appropriation’, and the English flag. The episode can be viewed here.
A reminder that you can follow me on X/Twitter: @PaulEmbery
I am a loyal trade unionist who supports his branch and strongly believes that ‘the union’ is something we build rather than a ‘function’. We had a branch meeting this week where the GS attended. No I won’t name names, but my union has a political fund which I pay into and use it to support Labour.
It was obvious that the GS and Committee are not happy with Starmer and his ilk, wanting something more radical. It’s also obvious they are all dyed-in-the-wool Remainers determined that the referendum is not going to be the last word. Had the result been the other way do you think ‘Leave’ would be getting any airtime? No, neither do I!
My point is that the vast majority of my fellow TU members -especially those who engage, turn up at meetings and on the picket lines and do the donkey work - are pro-Brexit, so this split is not just in the Labour Party. I fear we’ll be back in - actually or de facto - within 5- 10 years because of a determined putsch by EU loving politicians who seem unable to imagine a future without it.
Hi Paul, I think any chance of rapprochement with their original core sailed many years ago. The new core support and the MPs (apart from a few tokens) are largely ABs. Labour has been taken over by middle class graduates and I think is irredeemable (as by the way are the Conservatives). Labour under Blair adopted the globalist economic model. There’s zero evidence Rachel Reeves will change this, so for the foreseeable future we will be focussed on pure GDP growth derived from continuing mass immigration. GDP will grow, per capita GDP will remain static or even continue falling, and in five years time Labour MPs will be wondering why despite all the growth there’s not enough money to meet demand on resources (except of course the AB’s will continue to be much better off and unable to see there’s a problem). As someone who would identify as Old Labour, I find it depressing that those actually addressing the economic issues are all in the new conservatives (who I instinctively distrust) with deafening silence from the left. The world is truly turned upside down.